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Crypto Predictions

10 Predictions to kick off a new decade in Crypto

We will look back on 2021 as one of the top vintages in crypto history, and here are several milestones that we believe will get us there. Hopeful for an era characterized by an outburst of creativity, financial expression and freedom - similar to to the roaring 20's that emerged following the Spanish Flu. Wishing everyone a bright, healthy and successful 2021!


Predictions:

  1. DAI issuance up by 5x (to 5B DAI issued) and the rise of at least one algo-stablecoin competitor, from the rebasing experiments and new primitives. This will be driven by conversion of new entrants to the space through BTC/ETH and the increase in additional forms of assets being deposited as collateral. 

  2. DeFi TVL up to $100B, driven in large part by B2B adoption.

  3. Creation of SEC-approved BTC and ETH ETF’s from Grayscale, in part due to the appointment of Elad Roisman.

  4. 6 key protocol stakeholders (validators, creators/devs, politicians, miners, VC’s and DAO’s) start issuing personal tokens linked to work-as-an-obligation via on-chain verifiable credentials. This is akin to POS validation/skin-in-the-game in Eth 2.0.

  5. >50% of aggregated governance votes of top 10 DeFi protocols controlled via delegation to 3-5 protocol prime ministers (or presidents for those who care), comprising technical players (Gauntlet) and community DAOs (Rabbithole).

  6. Privacy-centric wallets accrue $1Bn in assets, driven by increased regulatory scrutiny of non-custodial wallets in various jurisdictions. If this is successful, we won’t be able to verify if this prediction is fulfilled. 

  7. We FINALLY see the emergence of a successful project building the vision of crypto OnlyFans (aside from Spankchain)

  8. Coinbase launches a successful oversubscribed IPO at a $50Bn valuation, along with 3 other crypto SPACs

  9. Creation of first popular real-time game with 100k DAU’s on L2 (potentially FPS, and on Matic/Skale)

  10. New Crypto-centric OS license that adds value-based economics for (decentralized) open source development


Trends:

  1. On-chain curation will grow increasingly automated via the utilization of control-theory models in creating more data and market centric feedback loops - we will see better stablecoins, lending markets and AMM’s driven by these

  2. More progress on WASM-based light clients as we seek to increase browser-based utilization and decentralization

  3. Progress on cryptographic primitives leads to wallets being not just browsers submitting single transactions, but being able to submit state channel validity zk proofs that encapsulate complex multi-party transactions

  4. DeFi apps that struggle to hit growth in existing ecosystem will seek to bridge the gap by either: i) reducing barriers to entry and txn costs by integrating with L2 systems or ii) seek to drain other stagnant L1 ecosystems of value by building bridges

If you have any strongly held opinions or thoughts on the same - or if you're buiding something cool, always feel free to hit any of us up at Consensys Labs!

About The Authors

Praneeth Srikanti
Praneeth Srikanti

Investment Partner

Praneeth has a background in enterprise networking at Microsoft and Oracle and has worked on investment teams of European and US VC’s. He obtained his MBA from ESADE and the Chicago Booth School of Business, and is a CS graduate from IIT Bombay.